This blog explores the normalcy bias, which explains why people ignore real threats of danger and disaster.
How do you prepare for potentially bad news? I prefer to have several backup plans in my pocket so that I can spring into action no matter what I am told. (Even if exhaustively executing these backup plans sometimes exerts more stress than just facing said bad news.) It turns out that many people react oppositely when it comes to bad news. The majority of people tend to downplay danger and minimize or even disbelieve warnings despite evidence of their likelihood. The normalcy bias is the term used to coin the reaction, or rather under reaction, most people have to threat warnings and disaster likelihood. But how can people just ignore danger? Why aren’t we fleeing when we are being told to run? And how has this shaped the evolution of mankind?
To neurotics and borderline neurotics like myself who always want to have a plan in play, the idea of simply ignoring a threat seems absurd. Here is my neurosis, ready for the world to end, while a large portion of the population is in denial that there is even a problem. The fact that most people would (hopefully metaphorically) sit in a burning room rather than flee in advance (with plenty of provisions and snacks) is mind-boggling. Psychologenie explores the psychological roots of the normalcy bias, which explains how most people downplay impending threats. For example, people will choose to remain in their homes even if they are warned far in advance about hurricanes and floods because they do not believe that they will be affected by such disasters. This is something that has been occurring in humanity for a very long time.
A historic and monumentally disastrous example of the normalcy bias -which is also known as the normality bias, analysis paralysis, incredulity response, and ostrich effect- is what happened in Pompeii. The entire city and all of its occupants were buried under sheets of lava due to inaction. No one observed a threat and no one took action. However, in 2022, we can still turn on our TVs during natural disasters and see people being rescued from their homes during hurricanes and floods after they staunchly refused to evacuate the area hours earlier. My question is this- do people think they are immune to disasters? Are they paralyzed with fear? Are they simply too lazy or arrogant to react? Why do people keep rooting themselves in place despite clear warnings?
The root of the normalcy bias is denial, an emotion that consistently causes people to underestimate both the likelihood of threats occurring and the chance that they will affect them in any way. Since disasters have not occurred for people in the past, they assume that disasters will not continue to occur. Therefore, they continue to sip their tea as the flames steadily inch forward. That perhaps explains my reaction, as after surviving multiple disasters, I wish to fully prepare myself to avoid any and all collisions in life. Perhaps the people who take action in disasters are those who know just how much the flames hurt when they reach your skin.
It is an innate part of most people’s psychological makeup to underplay danger, but this can then cause people to experience danger if they fail to recognize something that is an actual threat to themselves or their property. At the same time, overreacting to danger doesn’t help anyone when it creates hysteria. It is estimated that as much as 70 percent of the population experiences the normalcy bias, or the need to downplay any danger, while an additional 15 percent of people then overreact to impending doom and freak out. Only the remaining 15 percent can level-headedly deal with the actual problem at hand.
We are not immune. Sooner or later we will all be faced with a challenge. Just because something bad has never happened in this town or this neighborhood or to people like us doesn’t mean it never will happen. If you look back at almost any natural disaster or even any horror movie, there is a period right before the carnage when you want to press your nose to the retrospective screen and beg people to recognize the threat and take action. As an observer, it seems so painfully obvious when people need to take action.
However, people tend to consistently downplay potential danger. They want to be polite, so they get in the car. They don’t want to break their routines. They want to return to their houses even if something in the pit of their stomach is nagging at them and telling them something is wrong. They shake off the bad feeling and tell themselves that bad things can’t happen to them because that is not how the world works. They continue down the familiar path and trust that things will be the same. But guess what? Leatherface comes. Because bad things happen.
As someone who bad things have happened to, I know that the normalcy bias is bullshit. When you are faced with danger, you don’t need to be polite. You need to take action. Maybe if enough people learn this in retrospect and shout it off the rooftops, people will listen. It is vital to accept bad things can happen to anyone at any time. That doesn’t mean that you have to be afraid of the world or constantly on edge. You don’t even have to live life with a backup plan. You just have to be ready to take action when life demands it. Don’t ignore the warning just because you are comfortable in your life. Don’t leave yourself vulnerable because you want to wait things out. Take action if things feel wrong. This could just save your life.
Continued Reading: Missing White Woman Syndrome